The climate of the SEACI study region is highly variable with large differences in temperature, rainfall and evaporation from one year to the next and has, historically, been subject to both extreme floods and droughts. It spans several different climates - cool, humid eastern uplands, temperate southeast mallee, inland subtropical northern areas and hot, dry arid and semi arid country in the far west.
While we have largely adapted to living with a variable climate, changes in the nature of this variability (for example, changes in the frequency, severity and duration of floods and droughts) and changes in average climate may have significant social, economic and environmental consequences.
Across south eastern Australia over the past ten years, there has been an apparent shift to a warmer and drier climate, which has had major impacts on our water resources. While research to date indicates the possibility of hotter and drier conditions across much of the region as a result of climate change, the changes experienced over the past ten years are earlier and larger than would have been expected as a result of our current understanding of the nature of climate change.
Back to topHotter and drier conditions generally can be expected to place additional stress on our water resources, dryland and agriculture, communities and the environment.
The consequences of low flows have been very much in evidence over the past few years. For example, we have seen the lowest water allocations to irrigators on record, resulting in significant pressure on the farming community and many urban centres have been subject to water restrictions of varying degrees of severity.
Australian water managers have proved themselves resilient to the already variable climate, so there is underlying capacity in human systems to adapt to climate change, although assistance and support may be required. Reductions in water availability will lead to pressure to find or develop alternative sources of water and to more carefully use the water that is available. The viability of existing enterprises may need to be reviewed, geographic shifts may be considered, and new opportunities may emerge. The specifications and ability of infrastructure to meet the changing climate may need to be renewed.
Survival of most native wetland species relies on periodic flooding to some extent. Ability to continue to meet these needs as well as the human consumptive requirements will need to be more closely managed. Ecosystems and their species have a lesser ability than human systems to adapt to rapid climate change, especially when already challenged by a range of other stressors such as fragmentation, loss and modification of habitat, invasive species, disease and changing fire regimes. Natural ability of species to respond through dispersal to more climatically suitable areas varies individually but for many ground or aquatic species is likely to be limited by the speed and scale of the predicted changes as well as difficulties posed by habitat fragmentation. The adaptable cosmopolitan species, many known invasives, are likely to replace many of the more specialised native species
Back to top'Climate variability' refers to shorter term (daily, seasonal, annual, inter-annual, several years) variations in climate, including the fluctuations associated with El Niņo (dry) or La Niņa (wet) events.
'Climate change' refers to long term (decades or longer) trends in climate averages such as the global warming that has been observed over the past century, and long term changes in variability (e.g. in the frequency, severity and duration of extreme events).
There are many factors influencing the climate system, and these factors or "climate drivers" also interact with each other. It is not currently possible to say whether the apparent changes in climate over the past ten years are a result of natural variability or climate change or both.
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative will help us understand the extent to which recent climatic shifts can be attributed to various causal factors, including the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Back to topEach of the partner agencies has previously invested in climate science, including collaborations on previous projects by many of the SEACI participants. However, the current drought and the increasing competition for resources have raised awareness of the challenges and possible impacts of living with climate change. The partner agencies have recognised the importance of combining resources and cooperatively using existing knowledge to better understand and plan for climate change and variability across a range of sectors and industries.
On the technical front, knowledge is now available to improve existing tools to increase precision in forecasting. This will allow the partner agencies to become better informed in their decision making and planning.
Back to topSEACI is a collaboration of the Murray-Darling Basin Commission (MDBC), the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, the Australian Greenhouse Office within the Department of the Environment and Water Resources, and Australia's Managing Climate Variability program, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). MDBC is the managing agency, with the research being carried out by initiative partners CSIRO and BoM. The Managing Climate Variability (MCV) program is a joint R&D program representing multiple government and industry agencies: Grains Research & Development Corporation; Dairy Australia; Meat & Livestock Australia; Natural Heritage Trust; Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation; Sugar Research and Development Corporation; Land & Water Australia. The MCV partnership recognises that meeting the demand for improved climate risk management requires technologies and principles common to most rural industries.
Back to topThe South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a three year, $7 million research program launched in 2006 involving government and industry.
SEACI is a major research program of around 40 research projects. In addition to the results generated within the themes by each project against its own milestones, the program itself aims to deliver a more holistic and better integrated understanding of climate change and climate variability across south eastern Australia. The initiative is the first of its type in eastern Australia.
Back to topThe broad SEACI study area covers the Murray-Darling Basin, all of Victoria and parts of South Australia, including the agricultural areas of Eyre Peninsula. This reflects the areas of interest for the funding partners of the initiative. Depending on the complexity of the research involved, some sub-projects will cover the whole study area while others have a more specific geographic focus.
Through the involvement of the Murray-Darling Basin Commission, all states within the Basin have invested in and will benefit from the SEACI research program. The State of Victoria has an increased investment in SEACI beyond its MDBC involvement, by also being an independent partner of SEACI through the Department of Sustainability and Environment.
Back to topSEACI revolves around three linked research themes, focusing on current climate and its drivers, long term projections of climate change and improved seasonal forecasting, each addressing a set of research questions:
Theme 1: Current Climate - Characterisation and attribution of current climate seeks to answer
Theme 2: Future Climate - High resolution climate projections and impacts examines
Theme 3: Seasonal Forecasts addresses the key questions of
SEACI builds on the existing knowledge available from many other climate programs, both in Australia and internationally. Advances made through SEACI research will enhance capacity within the Australian science community investigating climate change and climate variability, just as advances in climate science through other programs will benefit SEACI.
SEACI has been designed to answer the questions that are most critical to natural resource managers in south eastern Australia. The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) is a program of research in Western Australia that has been running since 1998. Like SEACI, IOCI is aimed at better understanding both climate variability and climate change.
Back to topAustralian science institutions have active programmes of research that make important contributions to the understanding of the global climate system and the impacts of climate change and variability within Australia.
The Australian Climate Change Science Programme, jointly managed by AGO, CSIRO and BoM, is the chief driver of climate change research in Australia. The MDBC, the Victorian State Government and other organisations (including water authorities and Catchment Management Authorities) have also undertaken a range of relevant studies with a view to better understanding the impacts of climate change at a regional and local level.Internationally, the science of climate change is assessed every few years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issued its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.
Several programs have focused on Australian climate variability, for example the Managing Climate Variability program within the Land & Water Australia portfolio, which is of critical importance to grain producers and the agricultural sector more broadly. SEACI will also build on the knowledge generated by the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) in Western Australia. This program of research has been running since 1998. Like SEACI, IOCI is aimed at better understanding both climate variability and climate change.
Back to topImproved understanding of climate change and climate variability will help improve our ability to predict their impacts on water resources, agriculture, communities and the environment over a range of time frames across south eastern Australia.
Findings from the research will inform the development of future water sharing, allocation and natural resource management plans. The research will also inform decisions about investment in water resource infrastructure. New methods of climate forecasting will be applied to the forecasting of streamflow and crop yields across south eastern Australia. These forecasts have the potential to assist with adaptation to climate change, more efficient operation of water supply systems and more informed agricultural decision making. Back to topThe research program is set up to run over three years. At the end of each twelve month period, we can expect to see results from some sub projects, and an annual report will be produced that will describe progress to date against the key research questions being addressed.
A final report, bringing all the results together, is scheduled for the end of the three year program by mid 2009. A communications plan is being developed which will ensure results for the research are communicated as they become available.
Back to topFarmer surveys have been conducted under Theme 3 to improve the researchers' understanding of the climate information needs of agricultural producers. The project also takes into account the timing of on-farm management decisions to determine the most appropriate seasonal forecast lead-time and the level of accuracy required.
SEACI research findings will be released through reports on the website when they become available. An annual workshop of the key stakeholders will be held, with the initiative partners also taking advantage of other events and communication tools, such as their agencies' websites, to promote findings.
Back to topThe current SEACI studies are proposed to be completed by 2008.
Theme 2 of the SEACI research themes will examine how the climate is likely to change over the next 25-65 years, and the likelihood of those changes occurring, while Theme 3 will focus on developing forecasts of climate, streamflows and crop yields 3 - 12 months ahead.
The broad SEACI study area covers the Murray-Darling Basin, all of Victoria and parts of South Australia, including the agricultural areas of Eyre Peninsula. This reflects the areas of interest for the funding partners of the initiative. Depending on the complexity of the research involved, some sub-projects will cover the whole study area while others have a more specific geographic focus. Theme 1, for example, focuses on the south eastern corner of the Murray-Darling Basin, which is defined as all catchments in the Murrumbidgee and Murray basins upstream of the junction of the Murrumbidgee and Murray Rivers.
Back to topSEACI will support a wide range of planning, management and policy decisions for agriculture, water, natural resources and climate change risk management by communities, industry and governments.
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