Theme 3: Seasonal forecasts

A seasonal climate forecast predicts how rainfall or temperature in a coming season is likely to be different from climatology (the average weather calculated over a long period, such as 30 years). Because the climate system is so complex, it is almost impossible to take into account all the factors that determine the future seasonal climate. Therefore, climate forecasts are generally expressed as the probability that rainfall or temperature will be below normal, near normal, or above normal.

Research questions

Partner agencies are interested in finding out:

Can reliable methods of forecasting climate variations 3-12 months in advance be developed for south eastern Australia?
Can these new forecast methods with greater skill and longer lead times be applied to forecast streamflow and crop yields?

Projects

To answer these questions CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology are undertaking four research projects which will:

Evaluate the performance of existing climate forecasting systems for rainfall and temperature predictions for south eastern Australia.
Develop new forecast methods that will extend the predictive capacity of the existing forecast systems to lead times of 3-12 months.
Evaluate new forecasting systems and the statistical improvements developed by the program against historical climate data, and by comparison with existing forecasting methods.
Develop and test alternative methods of translating the improved climate forecasts into forecasts of streamflow and crop yield

Expected outcomes

At the conclusion of this research we expect to have:

Quantitative assessments of the:

predictive skills of forecasts based on dynamical, statistical-physical and hybrid methods
sensitivity of the predictive skills to forecast lead time
sensitivity of the predictive skills to the length and timing of the forecast period.

One or more new forecasting method(s) showing evidence of skill, and a definitive intercomparison between the new method(s) and existing methods
Applied the new methods of forecasting climate to forecasting streamflow and crop yields across south east Australia in consultation with industry and government users of these forecasts.

MORE INFORMATION:

Theme 3: Seasonal forecasts fact sheet | Download PDF 72 KB